If you believe the headlines, retail is dying. But if you look closer, what’s actually happening is more like an evolution, one driven by technology, cultural shifts, and a fundamental redefinition of what it means to “shop.” At the 2019 National Retail Federation (NRF) “Retail’s Big Show,” that transformation was on full display. Despite a partial government shutdown that paused federal economic data releases, the message was clear: retail is far from over. It’s simply becoming something new.
The Big Picture
Retail remains one of the nation’s economic cornerstones:
- 3.8 million establishments across the U.S.
- 29 million jobs, supporting 1 in 4 American workers
- $822.5 billion in labor income
- $1.2 trillion contribution to GDP
- And yet, behind those staggering numbers lies a massive shift in how and where we buy.
In 2018, total U.S. retail sales reached $5.3 trillion, with $4.8 trillion from brick-and-mortar and $525 billion from e-commerce. A year later, retail grew to $5.5 trillion, a modest 3% increase — but e-commerce grew 15% year-over-year, dwarfing physical store growth at 2%. This isn’t just incremental change. It’s a reshaping of the entire landscape.
The Retail Apocalypse
2018 saw the collapse of household names: Toys “R” Us, Sears, Mattress Firm, Claire’s, Brookstone, and Nine West. Department stores like Macy’s, J.Crew, and Ralph Lauren struggled with unprofitable stores and sinking stock prices. To many, it looked like extinction. But as in nature, extinction often precedes renewal. While malls are dying, models of retail are multiplying. We’ve moved from markets to department stores, from catalogs to malls, from multichannel to omnichannel — and now toward something new: harmony. The future of retail isn’t about physical vs. digital. It’s about how the two work together to deliver frictionless, personalized, and meaningful experiences.
Winners in the New Economy
Even in a so-called apocalypse, there are success stories. Stocks are up for Amazon, Best Buy, Target, Walmart, Nordstrom, Home Depot, Tiffany, Costco, and nearly every discount retailer. Dollar stores, in particular, are quietly taking over America. There are now more dollar stores than the six largest U.S. retailers combined (Walmart, Kroger, Costco, Home Depot, CVS, and Walgreens). Dollar General and Dollar Tree alone operate 30,000 locations. Meanwhile, companies like Walmart are hiring 25,000 personal shoppers to handle curbside pickup — blending convenience with human touch.
Trends Defining Retail’s Next Era
At NRF 2019, a few themes stood out that point to what’s next:
1. Sustainability & Transparency
From blockchain-backed supply chains to zero-waste commitments, sustainability has moved from buzzword to business imperative. Kroger’s Zero Hunger | Zero Waste initiative, which includes eliminating single-use plastic bags by 2025, sets a new standard for purpose-driven retail.
2. Frictionless Shopping
Consumers don’t distinguish between physical and digital — they just want convenience. The “buy online, pick up in store” (BOPIS) model is now mainstream: more than half of U.S. shoppers are aware of it, and 70% of those have used it.
3. Retail as Experience
“Retailtainment” is real. According to NRF, 58% of U.S. consumers are interested in retail events, and 82% attended one in 2018. REI’s outdoor adventures, TOMS’ in-store VR experiences, and Tiffany’s Fifth Avenue renovation all prove the same point: shopping can be transformative.
4. Digital Natives vs. Legacy Retailers
Direct-to-consumer brands like Away and Glossier are winning by merging product, experience, and story. Legacy retailers are responding through reinvention — partnerships, pop-ups, and tech integrations designed to close the physical-digital divide.
5. Privacy & Personalization
Consumers are increasingly aware of their data — and willing to share it when it benefits them. “Zero-party data” (information intentionally shared by customers) is becoming a cornerstone of trust-based personalization.
6. Polarization of the Market
Luxury and discount segments are thriving, while the middle is hollowing out. Consumers either want exclusivity or affordability — there’s little room left for the in-between.
Kroger: A Case Study in Transformation
Kroger is a powerful example of how a legacy retailer can redefine itself. Under CEO Rodney McMullen, who started as a part-time stock clerk in 1978, Kroger has become a technology-driven innovator. In partnership with Microsoft, Kroger launched a “connected store” pilot powered by Azure cloud and IoT sensors — featuring smart shelves that display real-time prices, nutritional data, and personalized offers. They’re also:
- Partnering with Ocado for robotic delivery.
- Expanding Instacart and Alibaba collaborations.
- Testing driverless delivery with Nuro.
- Opening a digital HQ in Cincinnati and an innovation lab at the University of Cincinnati.
- Introducing OptUp, an app promoting healthier food choices through data science.
McMullen outlined his vision at NRF 2019:
- Retail won’t go away — it will evolve faster than ever.
- Retail will be both digital and physical — customers will simply choose the most convenient modality.
- Retail will be purpose-driven — solving problems for both people and planet.
- Retail will disrupt advertising — data-driven precision marketing will replace mass messaging.
The New Retail Reality
The so-called “apocalypse” is really a power transfer — first from retailers to brands, and now, increasingly, from brands to machines. As artificial intelligence and machine learning take hold, purchasing decisions will rely more on product attributes — performance, price, convenience — and less on brand reputation. AI will become the ultimate comparison shopper, optimizing every decision. The challenge for retailers and brands alike is not survival, but relevance — finding harmony between digital and physical, scale and soul, efficiency and empathy. Retail isn’t dying. It’s being reborn.